EAGx Asia-Pacific

Forecasting Tournament

Saturday November 21, 2020 – Monday November 23, 2020

The tournament is closed.

Welcome to the EAGx Asia-Pacific forecasting tournament! We've chosen a set of questions based on data collected by our event app, Swapcard.

The Centre for Effective Altruism will donate $500 USD on behalf of the most accurate forecaster across all seven questions. The winner can direct the donation to any of the funds or organizations listed on EA Funds. They will also be offered a 30-minute call with Jonas Vollmer, Head of EA Funds, to provide advice on their donation decision.

The tournament closed on Monday November 23 at 11:59pm UTC. See this in your local timezone here.

Results

This table shows the average score for the top 10 participants across the seven questions. You can see the resolution values for each question next to the question links below.

If you're not on this table and want to know your score or if you want to see your scores for each individual prediction, you can email amanda@ought.org.

Rank	Username	Average score
1	Yi.Yang.Chua	1.55
2	Abigail T	1.05
3	Clare Diane H	0.49
4	Yip Fai T	0.47
5	Marcin.Kowrygo	0.46
6	Kane W	0.42
7	SoonKhen O	0.35
8	Brian T	0.21
9	Simdu09	0.09
10	Mmashton	-0.07

How to participate

Click on the question titles to make a forecast. The more questions you forecast on, the better your chances of winning.
Create your distribution. Check out the video below if you get stuck.
Take a snapshot. Each time you take a snapshot, it submits a forecast. We'll use your latest snapshot as your final submission. You can see all the submissions you've made in your Snapshot History.
Click 'Log in'. You must create an account and log in to be eligible for the prize.
Compare. View the average of all predictions by clicking 'Import forecast' and selecting 'Elicit Aggregation'. You can also send your snapshot URL to friends!

Questions

Click on the question title to make a forecast. Click the + button to see more context for each question.

For what percentage of attendees is this their first EA conference?45%

This question asks: What percentage of attendees indicated in their application that this was their first EA conference?
EA conferences refer to EA Global conferences or local EAGx conferences. Local meetups don't count.
At the EA Student Summit, 61.7% of attendees were at their first EA conference.

What will be the average number of contacts made per attendee?5.8

This question asks: Across all attendees, what will be the average number of contacts made between 12am UTC Monday 16 November and 11:59pm UTC Monday 23 November?
On the ‘Contact’ tab of Swapcard, you can see how many contacts you have.
If Person X sends a connection or meeting request to Person Y and Person Y accepts, both Person X and Person Y have made one additional contact each.
At the EA Student Summit, the average number of contacts made per attendee was 8.6.

How many messages will be exchanged in Swapcard?7,740

This question asks: What is the total number of messages that will be exchanged on Swapcard between 12am UTC Monday 16 November and 11:59pm UTC Monday 23 November?
You can find the number of messages you’ve received and sent by clicking the ‘message’ tab in Swapcard.
Every time one attendee sends a message to another attendee, this counts as one message being exchanged.
At the EA Student Summit, there were 990 attendees. 24,263 messages were exchanged in Swapcard.

How many meetings will be scheduled in Swapcard in total?234

This question asks: How many meetings will be scheduled on Swapcard between 12am UTC Monday 16 November and 11:59pm UTC Monday 23 November?
Meetings are scheduled by going to an attendee’s profile page and selecting a time slot to meet.
If Person X sends a meeting request to Person Y and Person Y accepts, this counts as one meeting being scheduled.
The number of meetings scheduled may be greater than the number of meetings that actually occurred.
At the EA Student Summit, there were 990 attendees. 892 meetings were scheduled in Swapcard in total.

How many meetings will be scheduled with the person who schedules the most meetings?26

We will identify the person who has the most meetings scheduled. This question asks: How many meetings will that person have scheduled between 12am UTC Monday 16 November and 11:59pm UTC Monday 23 November?
Meetings are scheduled by going to an attendee’s profile page and selecting a time slot to meet.
The number of meetings scheduled may be greater than the number of meetings that person actually attended.
At the EA Student Summit, 26 meetings were scheduled with the person who scheduled the most meetings.

How many attendees have taken the GWWC pledge?126

This question asks: How many attendees at this conference indicated that they had taken the GWWC pledge in their application to this conference (i.e. before the conference started)?
The Giving What We Can Pledge is a voluntary pledge to donate 10% of your income to effective charities. In total, 5,140 people have taken "The Pledge", as shown on the Giving What We Can website.
At the EA Student Summit, there were 990 attendees. 193 attendees had taken the GWWC pledge.

How many people will participate in this forecasting tournament?16

This question asks: How many people will submit forecasts for at least one question in this forecasting tournament?
A person submits a forecast if they take at least one snapshot on a question while they are logged in.
At the EA Student Summit, there were 990 attendees. 50 attendees participated in the forecasting tournament, which was similar to this one.

General context

For each question, a person is counted as an attendee if they have logged into Swapcard for EAGx Asia-Pacific. As of Friday 20 November, there were 435 attendees who had logged into Swapcard for this event.
Questions refer to data collected on Swapcard and Elicit between 12:00am UTC on Monday 16 November (when Swapcard for EAGx Asia-Pacific was launched) and 11:59pm UTC on Monday 23 November (the day after the conference closes).
To determine the winner, we'll calculate the log score for each participant on each question they forecasted on. We'll then calculate the average score for each participant across all seven questions. If you don't forecast on a question, your score for that question will be 0. The person with the highest average score will be the winner.

How to use Elicit

Any questions?

Join the #forecasting channel on the EAGx Asia-Pacific slack if you have any questions about the tournament or question details.

You can use Elicit beyond this forecasting tournament to make forecasts on questions in your own life – head to the Elicit homepage and type in your question!